Friday, September 26, 2008

Three Musketeers – Bush, Bernanke and Paulson

Now, let us see the facts today:
$ 512 Billions – Already written off by banks and brokers
$ 59 Billions – Given to Bear Stearns and JP Morgan combine
$ 200 Billions – given recently to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
$ 85 Billions – given to AIG as capital
$ 2,400 Billions – Needed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae
$ 1,300 Billions – Needed by AIG for future provisions
$ 700 Billions – Requested by Paulson – Bernanke for immediate need for Buying Bad debts
$ 400 Billions – Requested by Paulson – Bernanke for funding Money Market Fund Brokers
$ 5,656 Billions – TOTAL
$ 600 Billions – Losses of Lehman Brothers not yet written off
$ 6,156 Billions – Updated Total

Even if you ignore the future obligations of AIG and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mae, the amount comes to staggering 2,456 Billions or 2.4 Trillions.

Failure of Morgan Stanley – Goldman Sac and making them Banks

Looks good news - both MS and GS have become banks. And why did they become banks overnight? Because their take over by Wachovia, Chinese Banks etc broke down. No one wanted to buy MS or GS, and they would have become bankrupt this week. By giving them status of bank, their status changed overnight. They know nothing about commercial banking. The license to become a bank, which usually takes over 6 months, was given in 24 hours. Mr. Paulson is now portrayed as "savior of America"

Where was Paulson only 10 days back when Lehman Brothers and Merrill failed?

Paulson is an ex-Goldman Sac guy. He was the President and obviously has lot of stock holding in that firm, directly or indirectly. He did not want competitors to Goldman, so he allowed the demise of Bear Stearns, then Lehman Brothers and then crucified Merrill Lynch by forcing them to merge with Bank of America.

Now that field was clear, he permitted Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to become banks. He destroyed the whole economic fabrics of United States of America. He knows that most of the bad assets have ZERO value, and yet he portrays that the value is still 80% (only 20% loss – if that was so, any one can afford). Against this valuation, he wants FED to pay 65% (discount of 35%) to all holders of Bad Debts, prominent of whom are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (to lesser extent) and other banks. He is going to write the check for $ 700 Billions with no questions asked. So he will buy those trash assets and dump them into FED Trash House. He will save the Goldman Sac, destroy all other brokers, and he will be the most powerful KUBER in the world with power to print as much as $ 1.3 trillions of dollars in just under 3 months and distribute them to anyone he likes.

President Bush is a man with retarded intelligence. He is exhorting Congress to approve the package to buy trash assets, whereas almost all local governments of 50 odd states are clamoring for $ 200 billions collectively, which is denied to them. He spent $ 500 billions in Iraq and murdered 1 million Iraqis in addition to killing over 5000 Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now he wants Congress to approve $ 1.3 trillions in less than 7 days. The Americans blindly support their leaders – they are Intelligent Idiots. They have no idea what their leaders are doing and how their and future generations lives are destroyed.

Bernanke has become a Gate keeper for Paulson. He opens the gate to the treasury to the person nominated or permitted by Paulson. He also signs and delivers the tons of dollars to anyone coming to him with Warehouse Delivery Order duly signed by Paulson. These three musketeers – Bush, Bernanke and Paulson have virtually gone berserk. They are the most powerful people in the world today with virtually no accountability. Democracy in America is ruined by them.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California and very sincere worker, is refusing to travel out of capital even for a campaign; unless his budget, deficient for a few billions, is passed by the Democrats dominated Congress. He has virtually imprisoned himself to ensure that his state does not suffer. He is not getting $ for his genuine needs. Various state/Municipalities are borrowing from the market @ 10% to 20% whereas FED rate is just 2%.

Enough said.

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Thursday, September 25, 2008

No End In Sight: More And More Bad News

ECONOMY
  • The Labor Department reported that jobless claims jumped by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 493,000 last week
  • The Commerce Department said that new orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by 4.5 percent last month
  • The average price of a new home fell in August by 11.8 percent to $263,900, the biggest one-month drop on record. The median home price was down 5.5 percent to $221,900.
  • Bookings for transportation equipment dropped 8.9 percent, today's report showed. Orders for commercial aircraft decreased 38 percent and those for automobiles fell 8.1 percent, the most since January 2007.
REACTIONS
  • German Finance Minister said the U.S. will lose its position as the world's undisputed financial superpower
  • HSBC, Europe's largest bank by market value, cut 1,100 jobs in its global banking and markets division as deepening financial crisis threatens to crimp earnings.
  • Washington Mutual Inc. may be seized by regulators later today and parts sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in what will rank among the biggest banking failures in U.S. history.
  • Lennar Corp., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, this week reported its sixth straight quarterly loss and said the government must take measures to boost home prices that are down by nearly a fifth from their 2006 peaks.
  • While GMAC's auto lending is suffering from dwindling truck sales at GM, home foreclosures account for the majority of the company's losses. Minneapolis-based ResCap, the 12th biggest U.S. subprime lender in 2006, has lost $7.2 billion in the past seven quarters, compared with a $4.4 billion deficit for the company as a whole. With $65 billion in assets, ResCap is less than half the size of the global auto business, which has $169 billion in assets, according to GMAC.
  • GE cuts profit forecast for year as loan and leasing business is hurt by market turmoil

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Interesting Updates From The Market

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Search for Deposits

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley: Playing It Safer

Blame Fannie Mae and Congress For the Credit Mess

Fannie Mae to sell $2 billion bills Wednesday

WaMu Deal Could Take Time

Holiday sales set for worst gain in 6 years

Gold Futures Extend Gains on Demand for Haven; Silver Advances

Microsoft to buy back $40 billion of stock

Fertilizer outlook still strong

Apple will sell 5 million iPhones in Q4

First Google Android phone to cost $199

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Is Goldman And Morgan On Right Track ?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have transformed themselves into bank holding companies. The change in status allows the last two major independent investment banks on Wall Street to take advantage of different accounting rules, gives them more access to federal funds and buys them time to stabilize their funding base by acquiring deposits.

The move was aimed to improve market confidence. The move provides Goldman with time to continue the process of de-risking itself to a level deemed suitable by the market. Instead of carrying all of their loans, bonds, stocks and other assets at market value, as investment banks are required to do, the two New York-based firms can now avoid further write-downs by moving some assets into their banking units. They will also gain the ability to borrow from the Federal Reserve indefinitely.

Morgan Stanley plans to sell as much as 20 percent of the firm to Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. for $8.4 billion. Goldman has no immediate plans to raise capital, although it may decide to if it finds attractive investment opportunities.

Morgan Stanley's deposits amounted to about 4 percent of the firm's liabilities at the end of August, while Goldman's amounted to 2 percent of liabilities, which are relatively very low. At larger banks, deposits typically account for between 40 percent and 60 percent of liabilities.

Goldman Sachs, now the fourth-largest U.S. bank by market value, is more interested in buying deposits than in buying entire banks. The firm sees opportunities to buy deposits in the wholesale market and also to buy deposits of failed institutions, such as IndyMac Bancorp Inc., that are under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

In return for the advantages accorded by their new status, Goldman and Morgan Stanley won't have to change much about the way they operate. Neither firm is being required to dispose of non-financial assets, such as commodities or stakes in companies, that banks normally are prohibited from owning, for at least two years, according to the Federal Reserve orders.

Efforts by the companies to reduce their so-called leverage, or ratio of assets to shareholder equity, are more about trying to reassure markets than to meet any requirements imposed by the Fed.



Both charts look pretty much identical. The fundamental question to ask here is with this transformation, is Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on the right track. Is this the time to buy them ? Both have shred off a-lot of points but still pose down-side risk as investors lost confidence that a proposed U.S. $700 billion government bailout would solve the industry's bad-debt problem. Its better to keep watching and stay on side-line on this one.

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Short Attack: Lehman Dead Duck

Major U.S. stock indexes turned higher in afternoon trading Thursday afternoon, in an excessively volatile session focused on Lehman Brothers (LEH) fight for survival, and trader attacks on Merrill Lynch (MER) and Washington Mutual (WM). Indexes turned higher amid market buzz that troubled investment bank Lehman, which is fighting for survival, is looking for a someone to help it bolster its tattered balance sheet. The shares came under selling attack Thursday amid continued doubts about the firm's viability, continuing their declines from the previous three sessions. Lehman led the broader financial group lower Thursday, though the sector came off its worst levels of the day.

Lehman Brothers shares came under heavy selling pressure amid worries about the firm's ability to raise capital. Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded its rating on the shares to neutral from buy. Citigroup (C) and Merrill Lynch also reportedly downgraded the stock.

On Wednesday, Lehman posted a preliminary third quarter loss of $5.92 per share on net revenue of negative $2.9 billion. It also reported gross mark-to-market adjustments of negative $7.8 billion, said it would slash its annual dividend to 5 cents, spin off to shareholders $25-$30 billion of its of commercial real estate portfolio, and sell a majority interest in its investment management division. Lehman noted that it was committed to exploring all strategic options.

Who will be buying Lehman ??? I would stay away from Lehman. Not worth playing either side. From this point onwards its pure gambling game. Stay AWAY...Hint: Bear Sterns.....

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Winning Streak Continues With Google Being Latest

Yesterday i bought Google at 414$ for a quick upward bounce. I was hoping to sell it around 440$ level with time frame of 3-4 days. However Google made a 20$ jump today closing at 433.75$. I decided to take profits. Nothing wrong in bagging 4% profit in 1 day. I sold off before my price target of 440$ because it was hard for me to gauge price movement we had today.

Is this a trend reversal or a dead cat bounce ?? Not sure. It looks like a solid move upward with good volume and maybe i sold premature. Lets see how it plays out tomorrow.

For now my winning streak continues with recent trades being GOOG, RIO, KGC, TOL, ROCK and RSH.

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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Why Charts Are Your Best Friend

Yesterday I loaded up KGC and RIO. Special thanks to dumb-ass Cramer for his predictions.

KGC up 5.8% for the day. Surprizingly gold is down to 759$ level.

RIO up 5.3% for the day. Lets see if it was a dead-cat bounce or time for some reversal.

Both were over-sold and due for the bounce and that is exactly what happened. I sold both of them today for a sweet 1-day profit. Can't complain.

Today i bought the internet-giant Google at the close ($414.40). 5 day chart shows 11% drop. Time for reversal ??

GOOG chart tell an interesting story. Previously Google bottomed at 412$ in mid-March. Can this be the double bottom ? I think so. With such lower RSI and Stochs, Google makes up for a safer bet. However if Google can't hold 400$, it could drop even furthur. I would put my stop loss at $399.

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The Lehman Story: Are They Off The Hook ?

Lehman Brothers tried to bolster investor confidence by releasing quarterly results and announcing measures to keep the firm afloat.

A day after trouble for investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH) started a broad stock sell-off, major stock indexes opened higher Wednesday when Lehman made a series of surprise announcements designed to bolster investor confidence.

On Tuesday, an investment deal with a South Korean bank appeared to fall apart, causing the investment bank's shares to plunge 45%. That prompted Lehman Brothers to release earnings a week early and announce measures to keep the firm afloat.

Lehman Brothers posted a preliminary loss of $3.9 billion in the third quarter. Losses on bad investments totaled a net $5.6 billion. Investors worried Lehman needs capital to stay afloat.

The firm will slash its annual dividend to 5 cents and it will spin off to shareholders Lehman's $25 billion to $30 billion commercial real estate portfolio. The firm plans to sell a majority interest in its investment management division, as well. Executives say they are committed to exploring all strategic options, which could include a sale of the company.

Lehman shares opened higher on Wednesday.

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Cramer Predicts Commodities To Drop: Bullish Signal

Cramer predicted a worst-case scenario for these names: They could lose all the gains they’ve seen since April 2005. That means Vale [RIO 20.96] drops 68%; U.S. Steel [X 93.69] 50%; fertilizer stocks like Potash [POT 140.26], Mosaic [MOS 77.01] and Agrium [AGU 66.65] could fall 80% to 90%. But this is only if you believe that the rise of these stocks was due solely to the increased value of commodities and not any growth by the companies themselves, he said.

So what’s it going to take to stop this? The world’s central banks – U.S., Europe, even China – have to cut interest rates. Industry consolidation would help, too. A rate cut in China might revive that country’s appetite for commodities, and that would mean investors would be getting a great discount on all these stocks right now.

If China doesn’t come back, Cramer said, “the commodity collapse has the potential to bring down the whole market.”

Cramer is one of those CNBC clowns that almost everytime get it wrong. If Cramer thinks the commodities are going down, its a bullish sign. I bought RIO today at 21.09$ and KGC at 12.01$ hoping to see a turnaround soon. Both RIO and KGC have been hammered lately and provide much safer bet to go long.

5 day chart for RIO shows 17% drop. Is the pain over ? No one knows. The trend is definitely going lower, but I believe its time for some bounce back.

6 month trend shows RIO bleeding.....no end in sight.....can that trend change ??


As for KGC, gold is going through a huge correction. Market manipulation has lead to jump in the dollar. Upward movement of the dollar looks short-lived, driven due to lower oil prices and Freddie/Fannie news bringing in global investors. Hurricane season and world politics can easily send the oil prices roaring upwards. Housing has not bottomed. Inventory levels are still high. Job losses make it even more difficult. Foreclosures are still reaching record high levels. This can turnaround in a flash causing dollar to take a dump and gold to go higher.


6 month trend of KGC looks ugly too. It has experienced huge price drops. Is this the bottom ?

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Friday, September 05, 2008

Trading Discipline A Key To Success. Proof >> KGC


I sold my KGC shares at the open since I didnt get the jump I was looking for. Also I didnt want to hold anything over this weekend. KGC opened at $14.25 and I sold my 1000@ KGC at $14.29 bagging 400$ profit in 1 day. Turned out to be a pretty good trade since KGC dropped all the way to $13.54 an hour later. I was tempted to buy it back, but I got conservative here and wanted lower 13s to get it back again. Turns out it didnt go that lower and infact jumped right back up, eventually closing at $14.19. Missed an excellent opportunity to bang around 500-600$ gain.

However the key thing I learnt from this transaction is that I stayed disciplined.
  • Avoid holding over the weekend: I normally avoid holding anything over the weekend. This is because of alot of price movement in the stock market is driven by sentiments. It doesnt take long for sentiments to change in this crazy market. Weekend also gives investors/traders time to do more research and change their mind/position. Some big news over the weekend can dramatically change the direction of the market. Bear Sterns opening at $2/share was the worst one.....Thank god i wasnt trading it. Check FRE and FNM after hours with the news.
  • Being conservative is not a bad strategy in this market: Its better to make no money or less money than actually losing it. Losing money breaks your morale and sometimes makes you gamble bigger to get it all back. (Eventually digging a bigger hole for yourself)
  • Dont over-trade: Just because you made good money in a trade doesnt mean you can play crazy with your next trade. Overtrading means giving away free money to your broker. Overtrading means you are sooner or later going to go wrong and probably affect your morale.
  • Always have an exit strategy: Whenever you enter a trade make sure you have an exit strategy. What point you want to get out is very important to a trade. This keeps you disciplined and controls your greed.
  • Be flexible: If your game-plan didnt work as expected, be flexible to adapt to the situation. Dont be stubborn about it. Its better to take a small loss and move on than sit on a huge loss and bitch about it later...
Sticking to these rules and actually making 400$/day turned out to be sweet deal.

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Bill Gross Makes You Just Want To Short The Market

Bloomberg reports what Pimco CIO Bill Gross had to say about current markets: U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent Tsunami

The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning financial tsunami, according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.

Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.

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If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.

The government needs to replace private investors who either new assets or have been burned by losses, Gross said. Pimco, sovereign wealth funds and central banks are don't have the money to buyreluctant to fund financial firms after losses on investments they made to support the companies, Gross said. The world's biggest banks and brokers have raised $364.4 billion in new capital after more than $500 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of last year.

Since financial markets seized up a year ago as the subprime-mortgage market collapsed, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 13 percent and home prices are down more than 15 percent.

Gross cast a bleaker view for the prospects of the world's financial markets than in previous notes to clients. The fund manager has previously called on lawmakers to support housing with legislation passed in July that allows lenders to forgive some of homeowners' debt and then refinance them into government-insured loans.

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As Fannie and Freddie, banks, securities firms and hedge funds shrink, yields on all debt assets will rise compared with benchmark rates and volatility will increase, Gross said. The declines will end once sellers have depleted their assets and sufficient capital has been raised, Gross said. Unless new balance sheets emerge, prices of almost all assets will drop, even those of impeccable quality, he said.

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There is an increasing reluctance on the part of the private market to risk any more of its own capital, Gross said. Liquidity is drying up; risk appetites are anorexic; asset prices, despite a temporarily resurgent stock market, are mainly going down; now even oil and commodity prices are drowning.

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The decline in home prices hasn't been seen since the Great Depression, Gross said. That drop translates to an even bigger decline in overall wealth as the effects ripple through markets, Gross said.

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Makes you just want to keep shorting this market.

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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Gold Stocks Getting Cheaper Again

I used the market panic to picks up gold miner Kinross Gold (KGC) again at 13.88$. With KGC entering oversold levels, it might be a good swing trade. Gold is hovering around 800 level and holds a key resistance level. 1 month chart shows KGC has dropped 21%. I might be bit early to jump in, but I believe the odds of profiting from this trade are higher.

Recently KGC won the shareholder approval of bidding for Aurelian Resources and will take control of the rich Fruta del Norte gold deposit in Ecuador.

Ecuador froze all mining earlier this year while it rewrites its mining law, a move that stripped more than 50 percent from Aurelian's share price and allowed Kinross to get it for far less than it might have cost. Many Aurelian shareholders complained the company was selling out at too low a price.

This might turn out as a good investment in the long haul.

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Is This An Institutional Investor Warning?


Is this an Institutional Investor Warning?

You know the reality ... Institutional Investors have the directional control over the markets because they are responsible for 50% to 70%+ of the stock market's volume on any given day.

Above is a chart showing the "top core holdings index" held by the large Institutional Investors. Take a quick look at it ... what do you see?

Note the MACD pattern that occurred last December which was followed by a sizeable downside move in the stock market.

Now, look at the current MACD pattern. Looks familiar doesn't it?

The message it sends is a Warning that investors should be cautious and on the alert for another possible downside move on the MACD which would correlate with another downside leg in the market.

At the close yesterday, the MACD hadn't yet signaled such a down move, but a "CAUTION Alert" is definitely warranted. The current pattern doesn't guarantee that the next MACD trend will be a down move, but it does say that we are at an important pivot point where an important change is not very far away.

(Source: StockTiming)

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Is The Oil Rally Over ??


United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests or units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). The Company invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), International Currency Exchange (ICE) Futures or other United States and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts).

Oil is trading around 109$/bbl and recently breached its 200 day moving average on the downside. Oil has corrected multiple times on its way up but has never dropped below the magically 200 dma. Does this mean end of rally for oil ?? It will be an interesting few days to watch the movement. Lower oil means green days for the market.



Lower oil means happy days for airline stocks.....

Additionally oil refiners love to see lower oil prices.

Lower oil price means depressing profits for oil exploration companies.....

Similarly solar stocks becomes less valuable as an alternative source of energy when oil becomes cheaper...

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Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Worst Slump In Recent History For Auto Sales

Yahoo has latest story about worst auto sales: August auto sales fall; some say worst may be over

Nearly every major automaker saw its U.S. sales drop in August, but many are seeing signs that the worst slump in recent history may have bottomed out.

Most upbeat were executives from General Motors Corp., which posted a 20.3 percent sales decline from a year ago but a 31 percent improvement over July's totals.

Much of the gain came from offering all buyers employee discounts on many models, but Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president of North American sales, said there's hope that June and July were the trough for U.S. sales.

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Overall, U.S. sales fell 15.5 percent compared with August of last year but rose 10 percent from July's dismal figures, according to Autodata Corp. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate for August was 13.7 million, up from 12.5 million in July, the worst month in 16 years.

Chrysler LLC said its U.S. sales fell more than 34 percent last month, while Ford Motor Co. reported a 26.5 percent decline. Toyota Motor Corp.'s sales dipped 9.4 percent, and Honda Motor Co. saw a 7.3 percent slide. Nissan Motor Co. was the only major automaker to report an increase over August 2007. Its sales climbed 13.6 percent.

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But the increase over July buoyed most automakers, with sales executives saying that lower fuel prices were starting to ease consumers' minds. They also reported the market shifting a little bit back toward trucks and sport utility vehicles, driven by incentives and lower gas prices.

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Automakers said consumer sentiment was improving, housing price declines and manufacturing production are stabilizing, and exports continue to be strong.

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"I think there are some positives," Pipas said. "But the underlying economic conditions and the credit situation, which has given rise to this summer's low level of sales, still persist.

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Employee pricing, low-interest financing and other incentives pulled buyers off the fence and into the market last month and raised pickup truck sales, said Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for the automotive information site Edmunds.com.

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While Chrysler had a huge decline from the year-ago period, it showed a 12.3 percent gain over July. But compared with August of last year, Chrysler's car sales were down 39 percent and its truck sales were off 33 percent.

Ford sales dropped 3.6 percent compared with July, due in part to its continuing plan to reduce low-profit sales to rental car companies and other fleet buyers, Pipas said. The company said Wednesday that it plans to cut 50,000 more vehicles from its production plan in the second half of the year, reducing its output to 890,000 in the last six months of 2008.

The Dearborn-based automaker said its Ford, Lincoln and Mercury car sales dropped nearly 9 percent in August, while truck sales were off more than 32 percent from a year earlier.

There were some bright spots for Ford. Sales of its Focus small car were up 23 percent in August, while Escape small SUV sales rose 17 percent compared with the same month a year ago.

Both Ford and GM reported big inventory reductions in August as they switch to the 2009 model year.

Toyota said its car sales were down 3.4 percent from August 2007, and trucks were down 17.6 percent. Sales of the tiny Yaris were up more than 20 percent for the month, while the Camry midsize sedan saw sales grow by 3.3 percent, the company said.

GM said its sales of light trucks tumbled 24.1 percent from August of last year, while car sales fell 13.9 percent.

Honda's car sales fell 4.9 percent and demand for trucks dropped 10.3 percent.

Nissan said its car sales fell 0.8 percent but its truck sales climbed 34.8 percent on strong sales of its Frontier, Xterra and Rogue models and the Infiniti EX and FX crossovers.
Auto sales is a clear indicator of the current state of the economy. Lower oil prices and deeper discounts have helped auto sales recently causing upward movement in their stock prices. However i think this is going to be short-lived and give a good opportunity to short into. I believe higher oil prices, weaker job report, weaker housing market will lead to continuing weaker auto sales. I am going to use this opportunity to look for some shorts. Keeping an eye on GM and F.





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Gold Enters A Period Of Volatile Consolidation

Bloomberg has latest story about falling gold prices: Gold Tumbles Below $800

Gold slumped for the fourth day as lower crude oil prices and a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation and as an alternative asset. Gold is trading currently below 800$ mark

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Our view is that gold is entering a period of volatile consolidation following the sharp July-August sell-off, Greg Canavan, analyst at Fat Prophets Management Ltd., said today by phone from Sydney.

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The weakness is being driven by a resurgent U.S. dollar, said Canavan.

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Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold mining company, fell 9 percent to close at A$22.60 on the Australian stock exchange, its biggest one-day fall since Aug. 5. The stock, which has slumped 32 percent this year, has dropped for three days and has a market value of A$10.2 billion ($8.4 billion). Lihir Gold Ltd., the second-largest producer on the Australian stock exchange, declined 8.4 percent to A$2.06.

Canadian miners Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) and Yamana Gold (AUY) got hammered on NYSE as well as the popular SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)




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Airline Stocks Taking Off: Soon Will Be Great Shorts


JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) is a passenger airline that provides customer service at low fares primarily on point-to-point routes. As of December 31, 2007, the Company served 53 destinations in 21 states, Puerto Rico, Mexico and the Caribbean. Most of its flights have, as an origin or destination, one of its focus cities: Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Long Beach, New York, or Washington, D.C. During the year ended December 31, 2007, JetBlue operated over 550 daily flights with a fleet of 104 Airbus A320 aircraft and 30 EMBRAER 190 aircraft. JetBlue maintains a fleet of two types of aircraft, the Airbus A320 and the EMBRAER 190. During 2007, its operations primarily consisted of transporting passengers on its aircraft, with domestic United States operations, including Puerto Rico, accounting for 95.2% of its capacity.

JBLU is looking strong to keep its uptrend. It however needs support from falling oil prices. Waiting for reversal to short into.


US Airways Group, Inc. (LCC) is a holding company whose primary business activity is the operation of a major network air carrier through its wholly owned subsidiaries, US Airways, Inc. (US Airways), Piedmont Airlines, Inc. (Piedmont), PSA Airlines, Inc. (PSA), Material Services Company, Inc. (MSC) and Airways Assurance Limited, LLC (AAL). As of December 31, 2007, US Airways Group offered scheduled passenger service on approximately 3,800 flights daily to 230 communities in the continental United States, Hawaii, Alaska, Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America and Europe.

LCC couldnt break out of 200 DMA strongly. It fizzed out after starting strong on 2nd Sept. Waiting for 10$ level to short into. It forms double top.


Northwest Airlines Corporation (NWA) is the direct parent company of Northwest Airlines, Inc. Northwest is engaged in the business of transporting passengers and cargo. Northwest’s business focuses on the operation of a global airline network through its assets that include domestic hubs at Detroit, Minneapolis/St. Paul and Memphis; a Pacific route system with a hub in Tokyo; a transatlantic joint venture with KLM Royal Dutch Airlines (KLM); a domestic and international alliance with Continental Airlines, Inc. (Continental) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Delta); membership in SkyTeam, a global airline alliance with KLM, Continental, Delta, Air France, Aeroflot, Aeromexico, Alitalia, China Southern, CSA Czech Airlines and Korean Air; agreements with three domestic regional carriers, including Pinnacle Airlines, Inc., Mesaba Aviation, Inc. and Compass Airlines, Inc., and a cargo business that operates a freighter fleet of aircraft through hubs in Anchorage and Tokyo.

Can NWA break the 200 DMA ?? Waiting for higher RSI to start shorting.

Few other airline stocks.....



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Crude Oil Falls on Minimal U.S. Storm Damage, Stronger Dollar

Bloomberg has latest story about falling crude oil prices and stronger dollar: Crude Oil Falls on Minimal U.S. Storm Damage, Stronger Dollar

Crude oil fell for a fourth day as Hurricane Gustav caused minimal damage to refineries and rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and a strengthening dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

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The dollar's gain is also prompting funds to lower their exposure to commodities, and another concern is demand as U.S. refiners are due to shut for maintenance soon.

Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as $1.20 to $108.51 a barrel. Prices are up 48 percent from a year ago. Yesterday, futures lost $5.75, or 5 percent, to settle at $109.71 a barrel, the lowest close since April 8. Oil, down more than $37 from its July record, dropped because Gustav inflicted less damage to states along the Gulf than occurred in 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck.

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Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA, ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy Corp. are among oil and gas producers, and refiners that have started initial inspections of facilities.

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Oil's 26 percent slide from its July 11 record of $147.27 a barrel is a symptom of an economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe and may continue over the next six months, investor Marc Faber said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

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New York crude oil yesterday breached the 200-day average as slowing economic growth and unprecedented fuel costs slash U.S. demand for oil products.

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Oil prices are unlikely to drop below $100 a barrel because OPEC will cut production to support the price, billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens told CNBC yesterday.

Lower oil prices means up days for the stock market. Transport and retail sectors are benefiting from the drop in oil prices. Airline stocks have been bouncing higher for this reason. JBLU, LCC, NWA have such a surge in their stock prices. How long will the that last ? Its a guessing game.

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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Potential Shorts Entering Overbought Zone









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