Seagate, ConAgra Guides Higher, Carnival Below Estimates

Seagate Technology Guides Higher
Seagate Technology (STX) said it now expects fiscal first quarter revenue to be at or slightly above the high-end of its previous guidance range of $2.40 to $2.60 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $2.52 billion for the quarter ending October 3, 2009.


ConAgra Foods Raises Guidance
ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) said it now expects fiscal 2010 earnings to approacth $1.70 per share. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $1.63 to $1.66 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $1.66 per share for the year ending May 31, 2010.


FactSet Research Systems Guides Above Estimates
FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.73 to $0.75 per share on revenue of $152.0 million to $157.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $152.2 million for the quarter ending November 30, 2009.


Brocade Narrows Guidance
Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) said during its Analyst Day conference it now expects fiscal 2009 non-GAAP earnings of $0.49 to $0.52 per share on revenue of $1.94 billion to $1.96 billion. The company's previous guidance was for earnings of $0.48 to $0.52 per share on revenue of $1.90 billion to $2.0 billion and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.51 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion for the year ending October 31, 2009.


PAETEC Guides Inline
PAETEC Holding Corp. (PAET) said it expects 2009 revenue of $1.575 billion to $1.585 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $1.58 billion for the year ending December 31, 2009.


Lowe's Companies Provides Fiscal 2010 Guidance
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) said it continues to expect fiscal year earnings of $1.13 to $1.21 per share on revenue of $43.89 billion to $44.85 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $46.86 billion for the year ending January 31, 2010. The company said it expects fiscal 2010 earnings of $1.24 to $1.34 per share on revenue of $45.21 billion to $46.64 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $48.48 billion for the year ending January 31, 2011.


Carnival Sees Fourth Quarter Earnings Below Estimates
Carnival Corp. (CCL) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.16 to $0.20 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.23 per share for the quarter ending November 30, 2009.

Source: EarningsWhispers.com

Lincoln Educational, Molex, Ocular Science Raises Guidance

Ocular Sciences Raises and Narrows Guidance
Ocular Sciences, Inc (OCLR) said it now expects first quarter revenue of $82.0 million to $87.0 million. The company's previous guidance was revenue of $76.0 million to $84.0 million and the current consensus estimate is revenue of $80.0 million for the quarter ending September 26, 2009.

Lincoln Educational Services to Exceed Estimates
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) said it expects to exceed its previous guidance for third quarter earnings of $0.34 to $0.36 per share on revenue of $134.0 million to $138.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.36 per share on revenue of $138.4 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2009.

Molex Raises Guidance
Molex Inc. (MOLX) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.12 to $0.16 per share on revenue of $650.0 million to $665.0 million. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $0.04 to $0.10 per shar eon revenue of $590.0 million to $630.0 million and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $605.3 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2009.


SYNNEX Guides Inline
SYNNEX Corp. (SNX) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.72 to $0.75 per share on revenue of $2.025 billion to $2.125 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.03 billion for the quarter ending November 30, 2009.


PNM Resources Raises Guidance, but Remains Inline with Estimates
PNM Resources Inc. (PNM) said it now expects 2009 earnings of $0.54 to $0.73 per share. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $0.40 to $0.55 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share for the year ending December 31, 2009.


Developers Diversified Realty Lowers Guidance
Developers Diversified Realty (DDR) said it now expects 2009 funds from operations of $1.90 to $2.00 per share. The company's previous guidance was for FFO of 2.00 to $2.15 per share, but the current consensus FFO estimate is $0.76 per share for the year ending December 31, 2009, which may not be comparable to the company's guidance.


Activision Blizzard Reaffirms
Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) said it continues to expect 2009 non-GAAP earnings of approximately $0.63 per share on revenue of approximately $4.50 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $4.58 billion for the year ending December 31, 2009.

Source: EarningsWhispers.com

Stocks I Wish I Had Shorted

RAME crashed 9% today. Volume faded nicely. Was a good short.



NCOC spiked from 75cents to 1.50$ in matter of few days. 100% up move. After topping out at 1.50$, it started selling off. First red day (when stock price when below yesterdays close), it made a good short. The stock followed up this selling with 2 more days of selling. Missed this one completely.




LXRX is a biotech stock up on drug news. However got overextended from 1.60$ to $3.50. Another 100%+ move. Unsustainable. Profit taking and short sellers brought it back to reality. Had perfect afternoon fade the very first day of the spike. This led to more panic selling. If support of @2 is breached, this one goes down further.



FNET was up on no real news. Up from 1.20$ to 3.60$. 300% move. Unsustainable. Faded in the afternoon the same day it spiked. Similar to LXRX, more selling pressure in the next 2 days. Down 9% today. Missed opportunity. However shares were hard to borrow...


AXAS was up on no news other than as an oil play. Brokeout nicely at 1.25$ to 1.80$. Not up alot. So not the ideal short. But faded nicely in the afternoon. Potential for follow through selling. Shares available to short.


CUR up from 1.10$ to 1.30$ which was perfect breakout to 1.80$. Again not up alot, but perfect fading volume. However thinly traded today and looked bit choppy. Potential for follow through selling.


DIET was perfect pump dump candidate. Up from 1.00$ to 3.00$. 300% move. Unsustainable. Finally cracked. Got back to back selling. 21% down today. Was great short yesterday on break of @2.50 and also today with break of @2

Missed Opportunities To Short

GVBP was classic pump and dump. However no shares were available today to short. Really frustrating and sad to see a classic pump and dump in action and nothing to do about it.



EDAP broke past @4.50 support. Was fading all day. Easy short. Missed it completely due to focusing on other trades. Set alerts in the trading tool next time to avoid such misses.



DIET another pump and dump. Went straight down into the open. (from @2.6 to @2.2). Did not want to short after it was already down soo much. Just ended up watching. Sucks !!

Fakeouts Stopped Me Out On All Trades

Buying on round number breaks didnt work out today.

Bought CHINA @3.00 hoping the break would last. It never did. Stopped out @2.83

Lesson 1: Wait for volume to build up before going long. Fakeout did it for me.
Lesson 2: Stuck to my stop loss. Not disappointed about the trade. Plain bad luck. Stop loss was below yesterdays low.


Bought JAZZ @10.01 on break of $10, hoping for follow through movement. Couldnt keep above 10, after few tries. Fakeout. Stopped out @9.77.

Lesson 1: Good trade idea of waiting for break of 10. Unfortunately didnt hold. No disappointment. Stayed disciplined and got out.


Bought OPXA @4.20 and @4.07 = @4.14 average on alert services. Huge sell orders at @4.25 didnt let the stock go higher. Put stop loss at @3.94 (below low of the day). However wouldnt budge of the $4 mark and stayed weak all afternoon. Sold at loss @4.03

Lesson 1: Dont follow alert services blindly. Get out sooner if it doesnt act the way it is supposed to, to cut losses even faster. Small losses ok. Can be made up in one big trade.


All in all, pretty lousy day for me. 3 Trades, 3 Losers. On the positive note, stayed disciplined and got out with smaller losses. Done for the day !! Will start fresh tomorrow.